Before applying a new technology in society, it is vital that research has been done into the reaction of the public. For this it is important to look at politics, the private sector, and the civil society, including family and the private sphere. Here these different groups will be called by the name stakeholder. A stakeholder is defined by the Oxford Dictionary as “A person, company, etc., with a concern or (esp. financial) interest in ensuring the success of an organization, business, system, etc.” [1] In the case of blue bio energy, examples of stakeholders would be energy companies, citizens or wildlife organizations. In the acceptance of new technologies by stakeholders, research shows that next to reasoning, emotions play an important role. Furthermore, people seem to be more accepting towards new technologies if they directly benefit from them. [2], [3] Finding out what people find not only the most acceptable scenario, but also the most desirable one, leads us to the following research question: Which future scenarios are desirable when it comes to the application of a blue bio energy setup and/or GMOs in everyday life? Not only would it be good to find out which of the three scenarios was preferred most among our public, also the (subconscious) motivation was thought to be significant. To register what underlying principles motivates stakeholders when forming an opinion on a new technology, it was decided to formulate several future scenarios, each involving blue bio energy and genetic modification. The categories in which changes are addressed are science, technology and sustainable development, social change, economics and energy markets. The scenarios are aimed at helping stakeholders determine the extent to which they would agree with the application of blue bio energy and genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in society. The scenarios are assessed using five ethical principles (link), namely human rights, environmental sustainability, climate change, equitable distribution and ethical duty. These principles help determine one’s ethical priorities. Collecting data from different stakeholders allows the mapping of interests and priorities of different groups in society. This will allow for sensible regulation and understanding once blue bio energy gets to the stage of application.
Template:Team:Groningen/CONTENT/FUTURE/Future
Introduction
Situation in 2030
In 2030 the world population is still growing, and as the consumption pattern of citizens does rather increase than decrease, resources are depleted faster than ever. Energy demand is increasing and solar and wind power are not sufficient in providing an alternative for fossil resources. Governments, however, agreed upon reducing greenhouse gas emissions and use of fossil fuels significantly by 2050. Therefore, new ways of generating electricity in a sustainable way are needed. In order to realise this, a lot of research is carried out, which has resulted in the idea of generating electricity by using the concentration difference between salt and fresh water. This principle, called blue energy, requires the use of ion selective membranes. These membranes allow for selective diffusion of one type of ions from salt to fresh water, resulting in a charge difference between the two compartments. This charge separation over the membrane is compensated for by a flow of electrons. Blue energy originates from research by the Wetsus Institute, and was afterwards applied by REDstack, which uses synthetic ion selective membranes. After it was found out that a selective biofilm of modified Bacillus subtilis could be used, public debate was triggered on whether it is acceptable to use genetically modified bacteria at all, and if an exception for this demanding situation must be made. Three possible future scenarios showing the developments from 2030 until 2050 are described. In the first scenario, the use of genetically modified organisms remains unaccepted. In the second scenario, the genetically modified Bacillus subtilis is allowed for use in the Blue energy setups under secured conditions. In the third and last scenario, the developments occurring when genetically modified organisms are freely accepted are shown.
Scenario 1 - No GMOs
Science and technology + Sustainable development
Synthetic biology and specifically genetic modification of bacteria are not new, but have always taken place safely within the boundaries of the lab. As new ways of generating electricity need to be found, scientists are pleading for more allowance of GMOs. New discoveries in the lab indicate that a lot of potentially interesting products can be created using genetic modification. These discoveries can help solve problems that were never solvable before. However, the general public as well as governments do not agree with the use of synthetic biology in society. The private sector is interested in finding new ways to fill the rising energy demand, but is also very cautious about the opinion of the public. Many people mostly see the risks of genetic modification, and do not trust scientists enough to completely put their fate in their hands. The result of this is that more research needs to be carried out; not so much in the synthetic biology branch as well as in materials science, engineering and technology to find materials that can provide for more efficient solar cells and conversion of wind power. In addition, plastics, medicine and other organic components are all synthesised with crude oil as a starting product, and new ways need to be found to obtain these valuable products from a bio-based resource. Researchers are trying to find a way to make solar cells more efficient without using rare elements, while avoiding the use of hazardous materials and energy demanding production steps. At the same time research is done into the catalytic conversion of biomass into useful platform chemicals that can provide the basis for plastics and medicine. When it comes to sustainable energy, wind mills can be used extensively, but are limited by public opinion on visual pollution. As a result, research into other forms of electricity generation and storage is stimulated by governmental subsidies. Also companies that are currently in the fossil energy business look for possibilities to switch to renewables, as peak oil is reached and extraction rates of petroleum are decreasing, resulting in less profit. As oil is being depleted, the energy and fuel prices go up, bringing into view again the otherwise expensive alternative energy sources. The main alternative energy source is solar power. As no ideal way of storing electricity is found yet, research into this field is also stimulated.
Social change
As long as no alternative is found for fossil resources, it is not possible for countries to meet the requirements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and let a certain percentage of their energy sources be sustainable. This causes discussion among the public. On the one hand people realise that everyone must contribute to decrease energy consumption, on the other hand it is noted that the largest share of energy use is used by industry. People think that the government must use its influence to decrease this or make sure in another way that the Netherlands is less dependent on oil from other countries. Friction is also created by the increased amount of earthquakes in the north of the Netherlands, which are caused by drilling for gas. This results in the government heavily subsidising solar panels by 2040. This changes the atmosphere in society into a somewhat more positive one. People feel that they can contribute to a more sustainable future and are positive about generating their own electricity, thereby being self-sufficient. Initially, the investment is high, but eventually pays for itself. The heightened demand for solar panels allows for upscaling, which again results in lower prices.
Economics + Energy markets
In the Dutch economy, the use of more solar panels provides for a larger share of the national energy demand and the Netherlands is less dependent on other countries when it comes to oil and gas for some applications. However, the transition from fossil fuels to electricity for cars, trucks and planes is initiated rather late, from 2040 on, when solar panels are more common, more research into efficient batteries has been carried out and, more importantly, petroleum prices are rising. While the shift towards bio-based materials is not yet complete, dependency on oil-providing countries is a fact, which is the case up to 2050. Consumers pay more for their gas and electricity, and public transport prices go up. As a lot of materials are based on petroleum, many products become more expensive. Plastics, drugs and other organic components are all synthesised from crude oil, so new ways need to be found to obtain these valuable products from a bio-based resource.
Politics + Globalization
Governments try to reduce the amount of fossil fuels used, and strive to reach a fully bio-based economy that is sustainable and green. This is why political parties emphasise the importance of research. Worldwide research is more important than ever before, as people try to get away from the power of oil countries. The concentration of fossil fuels in certain countries leads to wealth in those areas, but conflicts might arise if prices increase too drastically. The Dutch government is interested in how other countries manage their energy and new developments on electricity generation are followed closely. Governments try to work together to find a solution for the energy problem, and new agreements are made on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. All countries strive to be self-sustainable and green, as long as it does not interfere with their economy. However, in most of the cases, the shift towards a bio-based economy requires a lot of investments, which is why it has been postponed so long already. By the year 2040, it is seen that indeed the later the shift is made, the more expensive it becomes, as the energy resources required to build new installations are getting more and more costly. Also travelling by car and plane is getting more and more expensive as long as it is based on petroleum, and shipping costs increase. Governments realise that it is about time to make the transition to renewables. Conferences are held in which new, this time binding agreements are made, involving the countries’ own emission of greenhouse gases. Not all countries participate in the agreement, but as the oceans’ CO2 absorbing capacity is reached, the global climate changes are becoming visible and other countries continue to see the need to act now, allowing slowly but surely for a change in the right direction.
Scenario 2 - Blue Bio Energy
Science and technology + Sustainable development
Research into synthetic biology and specifically genetic modification of bacteria is already carried out for a long time, but always safely within the boundaries of the lab. As it is no longer illegal to use GMOs in products the connection between synthetic biology and industry becomes stronger. Even though blue energy setups using genetically modified biofilms is strictly regulated to prevent release of bacteria into the environment, companies begin to see synthetic biology as an interesting option for solving problems that were not yet solvable before. It is seen that interest in applied research increases, especially because people expect that a trend is set that will be continued in the years to come. From 2030 on, more funds are available for research as the direct implication of the discovery of the blue energy principle serves as an illustration that research is the key to innovation and sustainable development. After years of research in large parts of the Netherlands, results are being seen. Research into problems like global warming has proven useful; bacteria are found that are able to capture excess CO2 from the atmosphere efficiently. Only time, lengthy procedures and strict regulations stand between the current situation and the building of large setups everywhere in the country. Additionally, people are looking into the possibility of making the conversion of sunlight to electricity more efficient by using modified bacteria or algae. The allowance of the blue energy setups with Bacillus’ biofilm in 2030 is in retrospect seen as a turning point in history. Up to 7% of the world’s energy demand can be provided by blue energy, providing a great addition to solar and wind power.
Social change
Economics + Energy markets
The growing application of blue energy in the Netherlands results in media attention from all over the world. Tourists and companies from a wide range of countries come to visit the blue energy installation at the Afsluitdijk. The Dutch expertise on water management is seen to become an increasingly better export product, due to its link with synthetic biology. Investors see the rising potential of blue energy and start to invest in it. The number of blue energy setups increases steadily and their constant supply of energy facilitates the organisation of electricity management. The result of this is economic growth and a more prominent position worldwide for the Netherlands on the energy and technology market. Several other countries start specialising in research and development of blue energy membranes, which leads to competition as companies work to create the most efficient and affordable membranes. Such competition, together with upscaling of production, leads to a drop in prices. For consumers, blue energy is not much more expensive than other types of energy; even though investments must be paid back at first. On the world energy market, it is seen that oil prices are also falling. The increased interest in renewable energy lessens the demand for fossil fuels, resulting in somewhat lower prices. On the other hand, the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum has long been passed, and it eventually becomes clear that the profits for extraction of oil fail to weigh up against the costs. By the year 2050, fossil resources are not yet depleted, but only remain profitable where no renewable alternatives exist. The implementation of blue energy setups does however not only have a positive effect on the Dutch economy. The pumping system of the blue energy setup conflicts with the trade in mussel growing. In the west part of the Waddenzee are located several installations used for capturing mussel seed. As vast amounts of zooplankton, fish and mussel larvae are filtered out of the water by the blue energy setup to prevent clogging, and the mussel business suffers greatly from this.[4]
Politics + Globalization and governance
Governments try to reduce the amount of fossil fuels used, and strive to reach a fully bio-based economy that is both sustainable and green. This is why political parties include the potential of blue bio energy in their programmes and emphasise the importance of research. Worldwide this shift in focus leads to a decrease in power of oil-producing countries. As the Netherlands was the first to make an exception for the use of genetically modified bacteria, other countries are interested in the specifics of Dutch regulations. Countries bordering the sea are looking for opportunities to applying blue energy and generate a larger percentage of their national energy demand, thereby making them independent of other countries when it comes to the supply of electricity. The implementation of blue energy gives an advantage to countries with more rivers flowing into the sea or with boundaries like dikes by which fresh and salt water are separated. Next to that, in countries with a shortage of fresh water and a lot of sun, solar energy is a much better option. By 2050, a patchwork of all kinds of renewable energy is in place, with each type of energy fitting the environment in which it is used. The possibility of using synthetic biology in addition to existing technologies provides one of many ways to replace fossil fuels and make the shift towards a sustainable economy.
Scenario 3 – GMOs
Science and technology + Sustainable development
Research in synthetic biology and specifically genetic modification of bacteria has taken place for over 30 years, but always safely within the boundaries of the lab. As GMOs are now used outside the lab, the connection between synthetic biology and industry becomes stronger. Even though application of blue energy setups using genetically modified biofilms causes some resistance and discussion, the benefits of it are readily acknowledged and so companies begin to see synthetic biology as an interesting option for solving problems that were not yet solvable before. It is seen that interest in applied research increases, especially because people expect that a trend is set that will be continued in the years to come. From 2030 on, more funds become available for research as the direct implication of the discovery of the blue energy principle serves as an illustration that research is the key to innovation and sustainable development. Research in synthetic biology has a long history in the Netherlands, and once regulations on the application of synthetic biology are changed, more application is possible. People are allowed to use genetically modified organisms just like they are allowed to use medicine or chemicals for cleaning. As long as the product is safe for use and kept out of the reach of children, people accept that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. Every day, new applications appear on the market that contain or are made possible by GMOs. Examples of this are food wardens, which tell you if your food is still edible, or paint that changes colour over time as the bacteria grow. Progress is also made on a larger scale; bacteria are found that efficiently capture excess CO2 in the atmosphere are constructed and solar cells that use phototrophs are seen to be very efficient and are therefore applied on a large scale. Blue energy setups are well distributed over countries bordering the sea. As the GMO revolution started with the genetically modified biofilm of Bacillus subtilis, this is in retrospect seen as a turning point in history. Up to 7% of the world’s energy can be provided by blue energy, and in addition to that, more electricity is generated from solar and wind power than ever before. The conversion of biomass to medicine, plastics and other organics is made possible by the catalytic mechanisms of modified bacteria.
Social change
A shift is observed in the acceptance of GMOs in society. At first people were rather doubtful towards genetic modification, due to stories about extreme cases with negative consequences for the environment and biodiversity. From 2030 on, however, acceptance of GMOs is increased by the success of blue bio energy and the involvement of the public in creative thinking on applications and the design of new products. Additionally, people accept that a complete shift towards renewable resources might only be possible when applying these new techniques. Interest in research increases, a larger public starts to show more interest for scientific DIY magazines and feel that they are more closely involved in science. New options become available, which translates into the possibility for consumers to decide on where their electricity comes from. More energy is available from renewable resources, as blue energy provides energy for 200,000 households in the Netherlands alone. This combined with solar and wind energy is enough to replace a significant number of coal power plant, resulting in a reduction of CO2 emissions. This is development that causes a positive atmosphere. People are proud of Dutch research, industry and the new set of regulations in the EU that allowed for the initiation of blue bio energy and numerous other useful applications.
Economics + Energy markets
The growing application of blue energy and changing regulations on GMOs in the European Union results in media attention from all over the world. People are interested in blue bio energy setup at the Afsluitdijk and research centres that work on the implementation of new ideas by using genetic modification. Investors see the rising potential of blue bio energy and the numerous other applications involving synthetic biology, and start to invest in it. Countries outside the EU are on the one hand sceptical about the new developments, and are worried about the environment, but on the other hand they see the benefits of the application of synthetic biology. Certain countries decide not to allow for the import of GMO products, but in general the new technological possibilities sell well on the world market, stimulating the economy of the producing countries in the European Union. Also in the EU itself people are keen on buying the latest gadgets. In industry, new factories are set up that use the increased efficiency in the conversion of biomass to fuels and platform chemicals. In addition, the pilot plant of blue energy at the Afsluitdijk is replaced by a fully operational installation with the modified biofilm. Competition by these new ways of generating electricity, of which blue bio energy is one, causes a drop in energy prices. Consumers can choose where their electricity comes from, and the surplus of electricity generated in the Netherlands is sold to other countries. As a result, the global energy market is less dominated by oil-producing countries and more by concern about GMOs.
Politics + Globalization
The risks concerning the use of GMOs are of global importance. The use of synthetic biology in everyday applications in the EU raises awareness internationally, as genetically modified bacteria in the blue bio energy installation could end up in the environment, thereby posing danger to the ecosystem. Some political parties are against the use of the genetically modified organisms, but the majority believes that synthetic biology can very well be used in applications as long as the risks are small. Besides the Netherlands, other EU countries start using blue bio energy installations where fresh water flows into the sea or where dikes between fresh and salt water are present. The use of solar energy and CO2 capturing is used worldwide to reduce the greenhouse effect. The United Nations Climate Change conference held in 2040 tells, for the first time in years, a positive story, as the perspectives for the future are good. More agreements are made concerning further reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by using less fossil fuels and using the new applications of GMOs that enable the transition towards a sustainable economy.
Feedback
The scenarios were assessed using two methods. Open questions were asked to a selected group of stakeholders and multiple choice questions were distributed among a broader public. Both sets are listed below.
Open questions
- Can you introduce yourself shortly, are you part of an organisation or company?
- From the following ethical principles, which one is most important for you or your organisation/company, and why?
- Choose from: human rights, environmental sustainability, climate change, equitable distribution (all resources distributed equally over the world), and ethical duty (the responsibility towards others).
- Which scenario is your preferred scenario and why?
- Which ethical principle do you see represented most in the scenario that you prefer?
Multiple-choice questions
- Which sector of society are you part of?
- Government
- Business
- Civil society
- Other, namely …
From the following ethical principles, which one is most important for you?
- Human rights
- Environmental sustainability
- Climate change
- Equitable distribution (all resources distributed equally over the world)
- Ethical duty (the responsibility towards others)
Which scenario is your preferred scenario?
- Scenario 1: No GMOs
- Scenario 2: Blue Bio Energy
- Scenario 3: GMOs
Which ethical principle do you see represented most in the scenario that you prefer?
- Human rights
- Environmental sustainability
- Climate change
- Equitable distribution (all resources distributed equally over the world)
- Ethical duty (the responsibility towards others)
[1] "stakeholder, n." OED Online. Oxford University Press, June 2015. Web. 14 August 2015.
[2] Roeser, S., The role of emotions in judging the moral acceptability of risks, Safety Science 44 (2006) 689–700.
[3] Roeser, S., Risk Communication, Public Engagement, and Climate Change: A Role for Emotions, Risk Analysis, Vol. 32, No. 6, 2012. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01812.x
[4] http://www.volkskrant.nl/wetenschap/stroom-uit-zoet-en-zout-water~a3798301/
Conclusion
Without blue energy it is very likely that all peak oil based products become more expensive. The same is true for for transportation that uses oil. This could lead to a decrease in movement around the globe for common people while the trend for the past few years was a more globalised world. Therefore people have to adapt to this new situation. This could lead to friction in society, a concerning development. Also it is very likely that knowing there is a technology that could help solving the world's energy depletion problem but it isn’t aloud to use causes friction. This would not only lead to friction in society but also decrease trust in government. It could lead to the impression that the only thing that has to change for a sustainable society, is a signature from the government. The possibility that oil rich countries rise in power will probably to friction in society as well as in politics. Therefore it would be nice that new techniques are able to actually contribute instead of knowing that it is possible but not allowed. But acceptance of blue bio energy opens the door for other applications as well. The use of GMOs in all kinds of products like food and toilet cleaning supplies would also be a concerning development. The impact of introducing GMOs in everyday life can not be without second thoughts. We as a society have the responsibility to leave this planet nice and healthy for the next generations. So regulations regarding these kind of changes which could influence the society and the globe in general is something we are obligated to do for the next generation. Nevertheless, it is a relief that new techniques would be used to solve world problems instead instead of just focussing on local problems. A future where new techniques are used to solve problems on a world scale (problems that threaten the existence of the world as we know it) would be an improvement. But exaggerating and using GMOs whenever you feel like it without thinking about the consequences for the future would be a bad development. The ethical principles which we think that are slightly more important than the others are environmental sustainability and ethical duty, these are both taken into account in the second scenario in which the use of blue energy and GMOs is allowed with restrictions. Dit is ook terug te zien This is also seen in the replies of the survey we did. The most picked scenario was scenario 2 - Blue Bio energy. The ethical principle that people decided that were the most important were environmental sustainability and human rights. The ethical principle that people saw most represented in the scenarios that they preferred was almost unanimous environmental sustainability. The response wasn’t broad enough to connect results towards a specific stakeholder.